There is a complex set of questions about the potential consequences of a military invasion of Venezuela. It's crucial to state upfront that an invasion would be a catastrophic humanitarian and geopolitical event with vast, unpredictable consequences. The following analysis is based on geopolitical, economic, and logistical principles, not an endorsement of such an action.
Short Answer: Not in the short to medium term, and likely not in a stable, long-term way. Probably the opposite initially.
Immediate Disruption: Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves, but its production has collapsed due to years of underinvestment, mismanagement, sanctions, and decaying infrastructure. An invasion would immediately halt what production remains due to sabotage, fighting, and the evacuation of personnel. This would remove over 700,000 barrels per day from the global market overnight, causing a sharp spike in global oil prices, not a decrease.
Logistical Nightmare: Restoring production would require billions in investment, new technology, and years of work by international oil companies. These companies would not enter a active war zone. The security, legal, and political instability would deter investment for a long time.
Long-Term Potential Only After Stability: Only after a complete and stable occupation (which could take years or decades, as seen in Iraq) could there be a possibility of increasing production. Even then, the benefit to U.S. or global pump prices would be marginal and years away, as oil is a globally traded commodity.
Short Answer: It would cause a massive, historic increase in both.
Humanitarian Catastrophe: Invasion means war. War means bombardment, urban combat, and widespread violence. This would trigger the largest refugee crisis in the history of the Americas, dwarfing the current exodus. Millions would flee their homes.
Regional Destabilization: The primary flow would be into Colombia and Brazil, overwhelming their resources and potentially destabilizing those nations. A significant secondary flow would attempt to reach the United States, often through dangerous irregular routes. The immigration "problem" would become an order of magnitude worse.
Long-Term Displacement: Even after conflict ended, the destruction of infrastructure, economy, and social fabric would keep people displaced for a generation, as seen in post-invasion Afghanistan and Iraq.
Bananas: Venezuela is not a major global banana exporter. Its primary agricultural exports are different. Therefore, a direct impact on global banana prices would be minimal. However, Colombia and Ecuador are major banana exporters. If the conflict spilled over or severely destabilized the region (especially Colombia), it could disrupt their production and logistics, potentially increasing global banana prices due to supply chain issues.
Flowers: Similarly, Venezuela is not a key flower exporter. The global flower trade is dominated by Colombia and Ecuador (especially for roses and carnations). The same logic applies: regional destabilization is the real threat. If Colombia's flower-growing regions (near Bogotá) were destabilized by a refugee crisis or conflict spillover, it could severely disrupt supply, especially before major holidays like Valentine's Day, leading to significant price increases in the U.S. and global markets.
The impact would be twofold: inside Venezuela and on global niche markets.
Inside Venezuela (Humanitarian Crisis): An invasion would collapse internal food distribution. Venezuela already imports most of its food. A naval blockade or port destruction would lead to immediate, widespread famine. Staple foods like corn flour (for arepas), rice, pasta, and powdered milk would become unobtainable for most.
Global Markets (Niche Impacts):
Coffee: Venezuela produces a small amount of high-quality Arabica coffee. This supply would vanish.
Cacao: Venezuela produces some of the world's finest and most expensive criollo cacao for the gourmet chocolate market. This supply would be disrupted.
Beef and Seafood: Some regional exports of beef and shrimp would stop.
The Bigger Issue: Regional Disruption. Again, the greatest impact on global foodstuffs wouldn't be from Venezuela's exports, but from the potential disruption to the agricultural powerhouses of Colombia and Brazil, major exporters of coffee, soy, corn, beef, and fruit.
Short Answer: It would cause massive disruption, likely leading to increased violence and market volatility, but not a long-term reduction in supply.
Short-Term Disruption: Venezuela is a major transit hub for Colombian cocaine headed to Europe and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. An invasion would disrupt established trafficking routes, ports, and air corridors. This could cause a temporary shortage and price spike in European markets.
Adaptation and Diversion: Cartels are highly adaptable. Traffic would quickly divert to new routes, potentially through Brazil, the Caribbean, or the Pacific. This could increase trafficking and violence in those alternative zones.
Power Vacuums and Fragmentation: The collapse of the state would fracture existing arrangements between traffickers and elements of the Venezuelan state. This could lead to violent conflicts between groups fighting to control the lucrative transit corridors, much like in post-invasion Iraq or Libya. The potential for Venezuelan soil to become a site of cocaine production itself (not just transit) would increase.
Long-Term Uncertainty: A prolonged occupation would force the U.S. military to take on a direct counter-narcotics role in a complex, hostile environment—a mission with a poor historical record of success. The instability could entrench drug trafficking even deeper in the country's economy.
An invasion of Venezuela would be a profoundly destabilizing event with global ripple effects. Its primary consequences would be:
A severe, immediate humanitarian disaster inside Venezuela, causing famine and mass displacement.
Regional destabilization that threatens the economies and security of neighboring key U.S. partners like Colombia and Brazil.
Initial shocks to global oil and some commodity markets (through regional spillover, not direct Venezuelan exports), likely increasing prices.
The creation of a long-term, intractable security and reconstruction quagmire for the invading force(s), with costs measured in trillions of dollars and countless lives.
From a purely pragmatic standpoint, an invasion is unlikely to achieve any of the stated goals related to energy prices or immigration, and would instead trigger catastrophic outcomes on all fronts while creating new and severe problems for the entire Western Hemisphere.